It’s been 2 weeks since the war penetrated between Russia and Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine both being major stakeholders of world’s energy and grains supply, World’s supply chain is gonna face serious problem because of conflict between these two countries.
Russia is a key player in global energy, metals and agriculture sector. Being world leader for exporting wheat, crude oil, refined petroleum oils and coal, Russia alone shipped US $335.5 billion worth of goods around the globe in 2020 according to WorldTopExports.
As Russian banks are being blocked form access to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication(SWIFT) System which is considered as key part in international trade, disruptions in cross border trade is obvious until stakeholders switch to alternatives.
China being major stakeholder of Russia’s export and have developed their own clearing system named Cross Border Inter Bank Payment System(CIPS), flow of energy and commodity to China is likely continue as usual. Also, Russia has already developed alternative to SWIFT called System for Transfer of Financial Messages(SPFS) back in 2014 when America threatened to disconnect them from the SWIFT system.
Apart from that, Russia has substantially increased grain production and exports as well since the past two decades.
Seems Putin was predicting all these sanctions, global commodity chaos and calculating it’s aftermaths since long.
